College of Liberal Arts and Sciences at Iowa State University

Move on

Atmospheric sciences' Gene Takle says it's time to stop debating global warming and start looking at its consequences.
There's no doubt in Gene Takle's mind.

"Global warming is a definitely a fact," says the professor of atmospheric sciences and agricultural meteorology. "There aren't very many scientists that seriously doubt this."

Given that, Takle says it's time to stop the debate on whether global warming is occurring and look at related larger issues.

"Global warming is here and we need to do something about it. We have changed the global environment in a way that is unprecedented over the last 20 million years," he said.

Takle has data from numerous sources indicating that global warming is occurring including:
"There are all kinds of individual indicators that give us convincing evidence that global warming is occurring," Takle said. "Now is the time we need to do something. We need to move beyond academic debates about whether the earth is warming. We should instead take action."

Takle proposes a two-pronged approach. In the short term, the industrial nations should focus on practical and constructive dialogue among the private sector, public policy makers and researchers about how to adapt to the change in climate over the next 30 years.

In the long term, emission controls should be developed that will restrain the warming sufficiently to allow for adequate ecological and agricultural resources to meet the needs of future generations.

"We no longer have any control over global warming over the next 30 to 50 years," Takle said. "Our economic and political strategy for the near term must be one of adaptation to anticipated changes. In the long term, we do have some control, but this will be for generations far in the future who inherit a much warmer planet."

Takle, Ray Arritt, professor of agronomy, and William Gutowski, professor of geological and atmospheric sciences, have adapted a regional climate model for application to climate change in the U.S., the Midwest and Iowa. They have created ten-year simulations for present and future climates for this country.

Global models whose data they use estimate a global average temperature rise of 2.5 to 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit over the next 100 years.

"There is no scientific evidence to suggest that global average temperatures will remain constant or decline," Takle said. "The issue is not whether warming will occur, but rather what other changes are likely to occur and what can be done about it.

"Individually we may feel a hopelessness about the global situation," he continued. "We need to get a dialogue going that can allow us to address the problems in the short term and raise awareness in the long term."

Takle believes that he and his fellow Iowa State researchers can help in this process.

"We've gotten to the point where we can be of some help to the State of Iowa and the region in charting out some further directions," he said. "We need to find out how Iowa will be affected by climate changes and what we can do in the short term to adapt."